2007 to the end of 2008, the prices have been at a high level, the 2009 economic crisis, the rapid decline in polysilicon price, most companies have suffered a serious economic crisis, until the third quarter of 2009, before the recovery. After the first quarter of 2011, demand in Germany and Italy to allow led street lights prices to remain strong, gave birth to more serious overcapacity, so far, the photovoltaic industry is still in the doldrums.
The next wave of growth is to wait for the opening of new markets in China, the United States and Japan, as well as vendors become more health capacity. Germany and Italy in the European market led light manufacturer demand gradually weakened, PV installed capacity in 2012 and 2013 is expected to reach 30.21GW and 35.76GW annual growth rate of 1.40% and 18.40%, respectively, as shown in Figure 1 for the different countries and The region’s installed capacity forecasts.
Global PV installed capacity in 2011, an increase of 50%, which triggered a construction boom, the current production capacity has reached 50GW, far more than the new installed capacity of 2013. With the capacity to further concentration and the phase-out of inefficient production capacity, excess supply situation is expected to improve, as shown in Figure 2.
The average price of the whole industry chain has been on the decline, but the current prices are close to cost price decline will slow in 2013, as shown in Figure 3. Expected next year polysilicon, wafer, cell and module prices were 18 $ / kg, 0.22 $ / w, 0.35 $ / w and 0.60 $ / w, an average annual decline of 18.2%, 15.4%, 4.9% and 14.3% .
The potential of distributed photovoltaic power generation in China
Chinese startup subsidies distributed photovoltaic power generation, and network of distributed PV power generation electricity subsidies 0.4-0.6 financial subsidies are expected to promote the rapid growth of distributed PV. In fact, the roof of distributed photovoltaic power generation system is the mainstream of the international market, a market share of over 70% led light manufacturer, but the high-power power plant is still more popular in China.
China has a huge potential in the roof of resources, the existing building area available for the estimated 61.4 billion square meters, if 5% of the roof-mounted photovoltaic power generation system led light manufacturer, produce 400GW the power. Taking into account the 2013 Golden Sun two 1GW and distributed generation the 5GW scheduling, to reach expected BMPV 6GW.