"Technology" global lighting LED packaging market output value is estimated to decline

Affected by the overall economic downturn and the decline in the unit price of lighting LED package products, the global LED packaging market is expected to continue to decline. The Trend Force LED research (LED inside) estimates that it will reach $6.276 billion in 2023 and CAGR from 2018 to 2023. It is negative 3%.

According to the latest "LED inside Gold Member Report" by Trend Force LED Research (LED inside), due to the overall economic downturn and the decline in the unit price of lighting LED package products, the global LED packaging market output value is expected to continue to decline, in the upstream market downturn and terminal Under the stagnation of demand, the average price of LED package products in the third quarter of 2019 continued to fall, with a drop of about 1%-6%. Among them, 0.2W and 0.5W 2835 LED products fell by 6% and 5% respectively, the most significant decline.

As lighting brand manufacturers continue to streamline costs, packaging manufacturers have become more urgent to reduce the cost of materials. Therefore, high-voltage LED solutions that can reduce the cost of driving power supply have become more popular and the scope of application has expanded. At present, the high-voltage LED solution mainly uses 9V (100mA) ~ 18V (50mA), and reduces the cost of the capacity component in the power supply by reducing the current. At the same time, the rise of this technical solution has also replaced the market position of the original low-power LED. It is expected that the number of LED used in lighting fixtures will be reduced.

Trend Force analyst Wang Ting said that due to the large-scale popularization of China-made MOCVD machines and the subsidies from local government subsidies in China, the new capacity of LED chips in China continued to be put on, making LED chip prices into vicious competition. Especially in the LED chip market for lighting, manufacturers are almost impossible to make a profit.

In addition, from the perspective of the overall economic environment, the Sino-US trade war negotiations have not progressed smoothly. The US has imposed a 25% tariff on China, which is an established fact. LED bulbs are also included in the tariff list, which will lead to Chinese lighting products. The US export volume has decreased. Among them, the most serious impact is the lighting export enterprises that are highly dependent on the US market and the foundries of some multinational lighting companies.

Although some orders have begun to shift to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Thailand, the local industry chain is not complete, the overall production cost is higher than that of China, and it is difficult to undertake capacity transfer from China in the short term. Therefore, the import cost of lamps and lighting products in the North American market is high. It affects market demand, and North America is the world's largest market for lighting products, which has impacted the growth momentum of the global lighting industry.